Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.013925 0.015772 0.017775 0.020111 0.022760 0.025672 0.029119
2025-06-29 0.010770 0.013254 0.016183 0.019892 0.024471 0.029947 0.037003
2025-07-06 0.008800 0.011457 0.014770 0.019211 0.025020 0.032376 0.042427
2025-07-13 0.007942 0.010829 0.014600 0.019896 0.027163 0.036812 0.050652
2025-07-20 0.007220 0.010248 0.014363 0.020381 0.028987 0.040899 0.058721
2025-07-27 0.006683 0.009831 0.014267 0.020993 0.030978 0.045319 0.067610
2025-08-03 0.006027 0.009157 0.013714 0.020855 0.031819 0.048110 0.074324
2025-08-10 0.005505 0.008619 0.013290 0.020838 0.032796 0.051128 0.081595
2025-08-17 0.004976 0.008010 0.012691 0.020471 0.033164 0.053200 0.087518
2025-08-24 0.004651 0.007688 0.012499 0.020714 0.034495 0.056863 0.096292
2025-08-31 0.004286 0.007263 0.012098 0.020568 0.035153 0.059456 0.103478
2025-09-07 0.004085 0.007090 0.012090 0.021065 0.036917 0.064014 0.114402
2025-09-14 0.003675 0.006530 0.011393 0.020336 0.036528 0.064905 0.119055
2025-09-21 0.003385 0.006155 0.010982 0.020070 0.036933 0.067218 0.126497
2025-09-28 0.003063 0.005691 0.010372 0.019386 0.036502 0.067967 0.131062
2025-10-05 0.002971 0.005641 0.010503 0.020077 0.038682 0.073690 0.145612
2025-10-12 0.002858 0.005541 0.010530 0.020566 0.040511 0.078892 0.159611
2025-10-19 0.002769 0.005478 0.010620 0.021184 0.042637 0.084834 0.175626
2025-10-26 0.002596 0.005235 0.010342 0.021044 0.043232 0.087792 0.185769
2025-11-02 0.002451 0.005037 0.010134 0.021027 0.044069 0.091294 0.197357
2025-11-09 0.002281 0.004771 0.009772 0.020657 0.044135 0.093202 0.205680
2025-11-16 0.002186 0.004656 0.009705 0.020903 0.045524 0.097995 0.220753
2025-11-23 0.002061 0.004465 0.009465 0.020755 0.046043 0.100959 0.231989